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Weekly Commentary
EU’s Iran Nuclear
“Grand Bargain” Dead on Arrival
Let’s take a crash course of Iran Theocracy 101. If we don’t
understand the basics, as is the case with the European Union,
we will end up believing that a nuclear “grand bargain” with
Iran,
even accepted by the clerical regime, will rid the world from
the nuclear threat. Here are the main course outlines:
1-
Iran is ruled by a theocratic tyranny intrinsically and
structurally incapable of meeting the basic and legitimate
political, social and economic demands of people. As such, the
mullahs lack long-term stability and legitimacy.
2-
Recognizing its inherit vulnerability, the clerical regime has
tried to ensure its permanence by making it the driving force of
its domestic and foreign policy since coming to power in 1979.
3-
Unbridled crackdown at home, export of fundamentalism and
sponsorship of terrorism abroad, and development of weapons of
mass destruction are the essential components of
Iran’s strategy of survival.
4-
Total disregard for human life, including the torture and
execution of tens of thousands of political dissidents and the
dispatch to the war fronts of thousands of Iranian
schoolchildren as mine sweepers during the eight-year Iran-Iraq
war, as well as public execution of teenage girls and boys,
reflect blatant disrespect for international laws, covenants,
and standards.
5-
In the mullahs’ view, the people of
Iran who demand regime change, and not foreign governments, pose
the gravest threat to the regime’s increasing fragile rule.
6-
Appeasing the ideologically driven totalitarian regime in
Iran is ultimately ineffective and only emboldens it.
A logical conclusion to the above points is that the “dream
offer” by Germany, France and Britain, the EU-3, to Iran was DOA
even before being presented. No amount of concessions and
incentives would dissuade the clerics to give up their nuclear
weapons program for good.
The “compromise” package prepared by the EU-3 amounted to no
more than a mere appeasement of the fundamentalist regime, which
had flouted a similar deal with Germany, France and Britain a
year ago. Thanks to them,
Iran
gained more than a year of precious time to advance its nuclear
capabilities while playing the “engagement” game with the EU.
Equally disturbing is the EU making a charade of the war on
terror by putting a “For Sale” sign on the EU’s list of
terrorist organizations. The French news agency reported
yesterday that the EU would reward the mullahs’ compliance by
“continu[ing] to regard the MEK (Iranian resistance group) as a
terrorist organization."
Last week, Tehran made the point that it “might be willing” to
give up its uranium enrichment capabilities in exchange for an
"assurance of the status quo" in Iran, according to Reuters news
agency. The mullahs unambiguously demanded that no Western
country should support or recognize the opposition groups
seeking the theocracy’s overthrow. Tehran has unwittingly
revealed that its Achilles’ heel is “regime change.” The fear of
potential international support for the Iranian people’s
movement for democracy has clearly exposed the frailty of the
ruling theocracy.
The most recent carrot offered to Tehran has made it clear that
a combination of political and business considerations prompted
it to include the Iranian People’s Mujahedeen in the list of
terrorist organizations three years ago. By doing so,
Europe
cast doubts on the credibility of its list and undermined its
war on terrorism. Ironically, it was the information from the
MEK’s network inside Iran about two secret nuclear sites in city
of
Natanz
and Arak, which prompted the IAEA to ask for inspection of these
sites. The information revealed in Washington by the National
Council of Resistance in August 2002, and subsequent disclosures
by the group exposed the vast scope of Iran's clandestine atomic
weapons program.
The root cause of the nuclear crisis with Iran is not a shortage
of “bargain” proposals; it is the nature of regime in power in
Tehran. With billions of dollars in annual trade with the
mullahs, rather than acknowledging the bankruptcy of their
wrong-headed approach, the EU recklessly continues on the path
of appeasement and in doing so, endangers the stability of an
already explosive
Middle East
region and beyond. This reality, however, has been lost to the
architects of “engagement” policy.
Recognizing and backing the democracy movement in
Iran
is exactly what we need to have any leverage in dealing with the
mullahs’ nuclear intransigence and terrorist mischief making.
That would definitely get the mullahs’ attention. More
importantly, it would be a welcome beginning for the formulation
of a sound and effective policy toward the religious tyranny
ruling
Iran.
(USADI)
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Agence France Presse
October 22, 2004
Iran’s Delaying
Nuclear Tactics and US elections
VIENNA (AFP) - Iran still has room for diplomatic maneuvering
and will certainly wait until after the November 2 US elections
to respond to a European offer to avoid possible UN sanctions
and receive nuclear technology by indefinitely suspending
uranium enrichment, analysts predicted.
Britain, France and Germany presented Iran Thursday with a deal
to receive valuable nuclear technology, including a light-water
reactor which would produce less fissionable material than the
heavy-water reactor Tehran wants to build, if the Islamic
Republic indefinitely suspended all uranium enrichment
activities, according to a confidential document prepared by the
Europeans ahead of the talks and obtained by AFP.
Iran said the talks would continue. "We are at an initial stage,
matters have to be considered on both sides," Iranian official
Sirus Naseri told reporters after the three-hour meeting in
Vienna.
"It was pretty clear that this meeting would not be decisive,"
Gary Samore of the London think tank the International Institute
of Strategic Studies told AFP by telephone. "This is the
beginning of the endgame, not the endgame," he said.
Samore said he thought the Iranians were "waiting for the US
elections," on November 2, with different calculations then
following for Tehran depending on whether incumbent President
George W. Bush or his challenger John Kerry wins.
The Iranians might try to take advantage of a Kerry victory by
agreeing to a three-month full extension from November until
when Kerry takes office in January.
"I think if Kerry wins, Iran would strike a compromise that
would essentially delay the issue until early next year," Samore
said.
"I don't get a sense that Iran is ready to agree to the
suspension. I could see the Iranians restoring the suspension
for only a brief period of time," Samore said.
David Albright, a former IAEA inspector and president of the
Washington-based Institute for Science and International
Security, said he was concerned about offering Iran a
light-water reactor, since this can still produce fissionable
material, but he said he thought the risks could be managed by
using the right fuel, namely 19 percent enriched uranium.
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Associated Press
October 22, 2004
Iran Exile Group
Slams European Nuclear Incentives
VIENNA (AP)--An Iranian exile group bristled Friday at a
European offer of incentives aimed at getting the Tehran regime
to stop uranium enrichment, saying it included a promise that
the European Union would continue viewing one of its key members
as a terrorist organization.
In a statement made available to The Associated Press, the
Paris-based National Council of Resistance of Iran said the text
- formally presented to Iran this week by the U.K., France and
Germany - "makes a mockery of the war against terrorism."
European negotiators included a reference to the Iranian
resistance group MEK in their last-chance offer of a trade deal
and peaceful civilian nuclear technology to entice Iran to give
up enrichment and avoid the looming threat of U.N. sanctions.
The document presented to an Iranian delegation in Vienna
Thursday included a pledge that the Europeans "would continue to
regard the MEK as a terrorist organization." The MEK, the main
group in the resistance council's coalition, also is on the U.S.
State Department's list of terrorist organizations.
The council called the continued terrorist designation
"shameful," and it accused the Iranian authorities of using the
E.U.'s characterization as a pretext "to torture, execute and
suppress dissidents."
The council urged the international community to stop
blacklisting the group, which it contends will "only lead to the
rise in human rights abuses in Iran and the increasing role of
the mullahs in international terrorism."
Last month, the National Council of Resistance of Iran claimed
to have uncovered more evidence that Iran's nuclear activities
are broader than it has publicly admitted. It alleged that Iran
has a hidden uranium processing plant near Bandar Abbas, a major
industrial port in southern Iran that is home to a missile
production facility, an oil refinery and a large thermal power
plant.
Two years ago, the Iranian opposition was the first to make
public that Iran was running a secret uranium enrichment
program.
Secretary of State Colin Powell said Thursday that the issue of
Iran 's nuclear program needs to now be referred to the U.N.
Security Council.
In an interview with Abu Dhabi television, Powell said "it is
time for the matter to be referred to the Security Council
unless there is a complete change in attitude on the part of the
Iranians, and they come into compliance with their obligation
under IAEA strictures, and also in compliance with the
commitments they made to the European Union."
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