Weekly Commentary

Tehran’s Determined Path to A-Bomb

Without question Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's defiant tone and vigorous defense of Iran's nuclear weapons program in his address to the United Nations General Assembly last Saturday, made it amply clear that Tehran was determined to continue its breach of international demands to suspend its nuclear activities. Less clear is whether Washington is resolute enough to respond with equal vigor to Tehran rogue behavior.

A few weeks ago, a senior European diplomat told Reuters that the European Union’s approach to resolve the nuclear issue with Iran had come to an end. The point was further reinforced with Ahmadinejad’s remarks at the UN.

In a thinly-veiled threat, he told the General Assembly that "we will reconsider our entire approach to the nuclear issue" if Iran’s is not left to its own device to move forward with its nuclear program. This statement further convinced the IAEA members that Tehran’s so-called civilian nuclear program was a diversion from the real clandestine weapons program.

Ahmadinejad’s diatribe was not as surprising as push by some countries still pressing for more time to be given Tehran to “rethink” its hard-line position. After almost two years of futile talks with Tehran, this suggestion, far from being naive, is utterly reckless. Time is what the free world does not have and what the clerical regime seeks.

In October 2003, when Tehran was not yet this far along in its nuclear program, there was more than enough credible evidence to refer Iran’s case to UN Security Council. Indeed, the EU bears full responsibility in letting Iran advance its nuclear weapons program under the diplomatic fig leaf and the legitimacy the Union’s foolhardy “soft approach” accorded Tehran. Did anyone really expected Tehran to be negotiated into stopping its two-decade long nuclear weapons program which it considers as being indispensable to its survival strategy?

The ascension of Ahmadinejad to office of presidency - the last bastion of power not fully in the hands of the ultra-conservation faction before him - leaves do doubt that a new page has turned in Iran’s political landscape at home and abroad. To advance its two-pronged campaign of acquiring nuclear weapons and establishing an irreversible dominance in Iraq, Tehran placed a thug par-excellence in the presidential office.

Since Ahmadinejad was elected, Tehran’s subversive operations in Iraq have significantly increased and even extended to influencing the draft Iraqi constitution. The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that many in Washington have “expressed alarm about the provisions concerning women's rights, the role of Islam in Iraqi daily life and the deference accorded to Shiite clerics with close religious and cultural ties to neighboring Iran.” This was echoed last week by a leading Iranian opposition coalition. "The National Council of Resistance of Iran claimed that article 21 of Iraq's draft constitution, which deals with asylum for refugees, could be used to expel members of the People's Mujahedeen Organization of Iran (PMOI),” wrote the Associated Press.

Meanwhile, the rise in violence and deadly attacks on British troops in the southern Iraq has been attributed to Iran. According to Times of London “British officials are convinced that Iran is implicated in the upsurge in violence.. Iran has been supporting a local terror group run by Abu Mustafa al- Sheibani, who is blamed for the murder of at least 11 British soldiers.”

Meanwhile, the rise in violence and deadly attacks on British troops in the southern Iraq has been attributed to Iran. According to Times of London “British officials are convinced that Iran is implicated in the upsurge in violence.. Iran has been supporting a local terror group run by Abu Mustafa al- Sheibani, who is blamed for the murder of at least 11 British soldiers.”

On the nuclear front Tehran has been even more belligerent. Even before Ahmadinejad’s UN address, the clerical regime had already decided to resume uranium conversion at Isfahan facility. And last week Alireza Jafarzadeh, an expert on Iran’s nuclear program and president of Strategic Policy Consulting, said that Iran's military is creating underground tunnels designed to conceal materials for a nuclear weapons program, according to Associated Press

In short, with Ahmadinejad at the helm, the most extremist faction of the ruling theocracy has completed its control over all levers of power. The clerical regime has defined its objectives, mapped out its path and staffed its leadership at all three branch of government.

The question is: has Washington done the same thing to counter Tehran’s nuclear threat and meddling in Iraq? The answer is no and time is running out on both fronts. (USADI)
 

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United Press International

September 19, 2005
Iran gearing for war?

WASHINGTON, Sept. 19 (UPI) -- Is Iran preparing for war with the United States? It sounds inconceivable, but the U.S. invasion of Iraq has spooked Tehran's mullahs to prepare for the unthinkable. Writing in the Sept. 17 issue of the Arab News, Iranian columnist Amir Taheri states, "incredible though it may sound there are signs that Tehran may be preparing for a military confrontation with the United States, and has convinced itself that it could win." This may explain, partially, why Iran's mullahs are emulating the Vietcong by going underground, at least so far as their nuclear program and missile construction structures are concerned.

Iranian opposition officials, citing intelligence reports received from sources inside Iran, claim the Islamic republic is building a vast network of tunnels and secret centers across the country, for the purpose of hiding its nuclear processing facilities and missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. The tunnels and underground endeavors have been codenamed "Development Projects." They are classified as "top secret" by Tehran. The Iranian government has forbidden the tunnels and centers be referred to by their names, designating instead each one by a specified code. The tunnels and processing sites have been placed under "very strict and tight security and intelligence system," maintained by the military, according to intelligence reports from Iranian opposition. "Iran is increasingly moving its nuclear facilities to military sites," said Alireza Jafarzadeh, an Iranian dissident living in Washington. Backing-up his claims with a detailed blueprint of what appeared to be a plant of some sort, Jafarzadeh, explained in great detail, at a press conference last week, the perils of Iran going nuclear.

Other opposition groups are also decrying the dangers posed by a nuclear-armed Iran and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who was in New York last week to address the United Nations General Assembly, was greeted to a tumultuous welcome by tens of thousands of protestors objecting to his visit and calling attention to Iran's pursuit of its nuclear program.

Iran's Gachin uranium ore mine is producing about 21 tons of ore annually, enough to manufacture about four nuclear bombs per year, according to a U.S. government report first made public by ABC News.

"Seven of Iran's 13 nuclear-related facilities were kept secret until 2002, including enrichment plants at Lashkar-Abad, Tehran, Natanz, and uranium processing at Adrekan and Gachin," the report said.

Iran has been hiding its nuclear programs for the good part of 18 years, pointed out Paul Leventhal, president of the Nuclear Control Institute, and co- founder of the Iran Policy Committee, an ad-hoc group comprised for the most par of former U.S. government officials lobbying the Bush administration to empower Iranian resistance inside the country.

The IPC sees as key player the Mujahedeen-e-Khalq, or MeK, a cult-like group accused of having Marxist- Islamist tendencies, if ever the twain could meet. "When one also considers Iran's concealment and deception activities, it's difficult to escape the conclusion that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons," the U.S. government report went on to say. "It is reaching the point which is beyond critical," warned Leventhal, urging the International Atomic Energy Agency -- the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog -- to "promptly investigate" Iran's nuclear infractions, adding that much "evidence" has been ignored by the IAEA.

Commenting on the "evidence that Tehran is building a nuclear bomb," a Tehran commentator on Sahar TV asked "why should we believe the United States now when it lied about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq?"

The danger posed by a nuclear-armed Iran, as Patrick Clawson, deputy director for research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, explains, is that it would instigate a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia and Egypt, for example, would find it hard to allow Iran to remain the only country in the region (besides Israel) to go nuclear. It would create "a snowball effect," says Clawson.

"The world would not be better off if more countries were armed with nuclear weapons," said Clawson. "Iran talks of its rights without mentioning its obligations. Iran has a right if it cooperates with the IAEA," pointed out Clawson.

But Iran, so far, has refused to cooperate, playing a cat and mouse game with both the IAEA and the Euro-3 - Britain, France and Germany - who have been tying to negotiate a peaceful and adequate solution to Iran's nuclear quest.

Jafarzadeh, now president of Strategic Policy Consulting, but who represented the Mujahedeen-e- Khalq until the Iranian resistance group found its way on the U.S. terror list, warned of the "speed with which Iran is proceeding" with its nuclear program. The election of Ahmadinejad to the presidency of the Islamic republic consolidated Iran's power base, bringing the army and the Revolutionary Guards under the mandate of the mullahs.

Taheri, the columnist, points out that "another sign that Tehran may be preparing for war is the appointment of military officers to posts normally held by civilians, such as governors, mayors and directors of major public corporations."

Following in the footsteps of the Vietcong and their wartime leader Ho Chi Minh, Iran's supreme guide, Ali Khamenei, is reported to be building a "bunker-like structure" close to his house in the city of Mashhad in the vicinity of the holy shrine of Reza, the eighth imam, reports Taheri.

The bunker is reported to have the capacity to house the entire Iranian government. Speaking to CNN during his New York visit President Ahmadinejad said Iran is absolutely determined to pursue a nuclear energy program and "will use every resource" it has to battle the United States and European nations trying to prevent it. Stay tuned.
 

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Daily Telegraph

September 20, 2005
Blair and Straw Split by Iran Nuclear Crisis

A serious rift has opened between Tony Blair and Jack Straw over whether to retain the threat of military action against Iran if it refuses to halt its nuclear programme. A day after Mr Straw declared that the crisis "will not be resolved by military means", Downing Street distanced itself from the Foreign Secretary.

It lined up behind President George W Bush, who has made clear that "all options are on the table" while wanting a diplomatic solution and insisting there are no plans to use force. The Foreign Office made no attempt to hide the disagreement last night. "Jack's view is clear," said a senior official. "Military action is inconceivable."

Earlier, the Prime Minister's official spokesman played down any suggestion of a split but, when asked about the difference between Mr Straw's views and those of the US President, he emphasised that Mr Blair agreed with Mr Bush.

"On May 12... the Prime Minister at a press conference said that what President Bush has said is perfectly sensible. "You can't say you are taking options off the table. But he went on to say, I think very sensibly too, that nobody is talking about invasions of Iran or military action against Iran."
 

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The US Alliance for Democratic Iran (USADI), is a US-based, non-profit, independent organization, which promotes informed policy debate, exchange of ideas, analysis, research and education to advance a US  policy on Iran which will benefit America’s interests, both at home and in the Middle East, through supporting Iranian people’s  aspirations for a democratic, secular, and peaceful government, free of tyranny, fundamentalism, weapons of mass destruction, and terrorism.

USADI supports the Iranian peoples' aspirations for democracy, peace,  human rights, women’s equality, freedom of expression, separation of  church and state, self-determination, control of land and resources,  cultural integrity, and the right to development and prosperity.

The USADI is not affiliated with any government agencies, political groups or parties. The USADI administration is solely responsible for its activities and decisions.