Weekly Commentary

US Should not Join the EU-Tehran Nuclear Bazaar

Call it a policy shift or a tactical retreat. Either way, the announcement last Friday by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that the United States had agreed to offer modest economic incentives to Iran in exchange for Tehran's abandoning its nuclear enrichment program, would send the wrong signal to all parties concerned.

Tehran’s immediate rejection of the offer of membership in the World Trade Organization and of sales of spare parts for civilian aircraft, as” too insignificant to comment about,” proved this point.

Noting that Rice has been misled in thinking Iran might stop its work on uranium enrichment, Sirous Naseri, a senior Iranian negotiator in nuclear talks with the European Union, told Reuters that abandoning “our nuclear fuel program is not on the table.”

And Hossein Mousavian, a senior official in Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, told the BBC on Sunday that the US offers did not amount to real concessions. The US should unblock frozen Iranian assets, lift sanctions and stop "hostile measures", he added.

The world's number one terror sponsors in Tehran are now further assured that their continued rogue behavior and defiance of the international community is paying off. They see that following Paris, Berlin, and London, now Washington might be reluctant in confronting them.

Obviously, Tehran intends to get as many concessions as it can and still keep the essential component and infrastructure of its nuclear weapons program intact. When it comes to rogue regimes, the bitter truth is that diplomatic engagement is an exercise in futility. The root cause of the nuclear crisis with Iran is not a shortage of “economic incentives”; it is the nature of regime in power in Tehran.

Iran is ruled by a theocratic regime, intrinsically incapable of change and unable to meet the basic and legitimate political, social and economic demands of its citizens.

This shows the inherit vulnerability of the mullahs’ regime. Cognizant of this weakness, the clerical regime has tried to ensure its permanence by making the survival of the system the driving force of its domestic and foreign policy since coming to power in 1979.

To this end, cracking down at home, exporting fundamentalism and sponsoring terrorism abroad as well as developing weapons of mass destruction have been the essential components of Iran’s survival strategy.

It would be naïve to assume that the mullahs will agree to undermine their survivability by abandoning one of its main pillars. No amount of incentives would convince Tehran to do otherwise.

A regime, which has lied for about two decades about its nuclear program and continued its mislead-and-cheat campaign, while pretending to cooperate with the UN inspectors after it was caught red-handed, is clearly telling the world it has no intention of changing course. Just last week, the Pakistani government confirmed that A.Q. Khan had sold Iran uranium enrichment centrifuges. (USADI)
 

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Center for Security Policy (Decision Brief)
March 14, 2005
The Eurofaustians

"... And our duty is now clear: For the sake of our long-term security, all free nations must stand with the forces of democracy and justice that have begun to transform the Middle East."

George W. Bush, National Defense University March 8, 2005

Even as President Bush was drawing this lesson from the past, Europe's leading nations - Britain, France and Germany - were inveigling his Administration to join them in the latest example of great democracies "excusing and accommodating tyranny" in the pursuit of what passes for "stability." Within days of the President's powerful address at NDU, the Eurofaustians had induced him to join their effort to do a deal that would, as a practical matter, legitimate, perpetuate and enrich the despotic mullahocracy of Iran…

We should be clear, however. We have entered the bazaar and the offer on the table should be understood by everyone to be but the opening bid. The mullahs have already responded by saying they will not abandon their uranium enrichment program, seed corn for nuclear weaponry. Clearly, they expect more Western offers will be made to induce them to be more tractable.

Unfortunately, it is predictable that the Europeans will be all-too-willing to make such further offers, in the interest of "keeping the dialogue going" and avoiding a rupture with Tehran that would be seen as clearing the way for the Iranian bomb. (A similar logic is impelling the Eurofaustians to resume arms sales to Communist China, even as the PRC inexorably moves forward with its plans to re-annex Taiwan, by force if necessary.)

The futility of the Eurofaustians' deal-making is assured, however, since there is no way to ensure that Tehran is complying any more fully with future promises to freeze its nuclear weapons program than it has with previous ones…

Worse yet, the process of deal-making with a repressive, dishonest and aggressive Iranian regime buys the mullahs the one thing they need most: Time. Time to complete their covert nuclear program. Time to mate nuclear warheads with Iran's growing arsenal of longer and longer range ballistic and cruise missiles. Time to ensure that Iran's Chinese and Russian friends will thwart any Security Council resolution the United States might actually be able to persuade the EU-3 to support.

Arguably even more insidious is the prospect that the Bush Administration will be seen by the Iranian people as having decided, at least implicitly, that doing a deal with the Iranian regime is more important than "standing with the people" of Iran, who yearn for freedom from the mullahs. This is all the more regrettable since it not only calls into question the President's central organizing principle for the war on terror; it would also seem to preclude, or at least greatly to impede, the only tool that might actually prevent Iranian nuclear armament: regime change in favor of freedom...

... We need to wage political warfare against the mullahocracy if there is to be any chance of freeing its people and denying terror's friends the Bomb. And neither time nor the Eurofaustians will be on our side in waging such warfare.
 

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The Wall Street Journal (Editorial)
March 14, 2005
Iran's 'No'

Last week brought the announcement of an agreement between Europe and the U.S. on a package of carrots -- including aircraft parts and the prospect of World Trade Organization membership -- aimed at coaxing Iran to give up its nuclear program through further diplomacy. If nothing else, this tactical U.S. retreat ought to put to rest caricatures of the Bush Administration as cowboy unilateralists bent on war with the mullahs.

And we mean "if nothing else." Because the agreement also encourages the world's No. 1 terror sponsors in their belief that civilized nations will ultimately flinch from confronting them over the nuclear issue. Tehran quickly dismissed the offer as "insignificant" and, with the vocal support of visiting Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chavez, again proclaimed Iran's right to all phases of the nuclear fuel cycle.

The belief that there's a diplomatic solution to be had here is increasingly the triumph of hope over experience. Iran lied about its nuclear work to the International Atomic Energy Agency for two decades, and again and repeatedly when confronted and offered a chance to come clean. Just last week Pakistan confirmed that A-bomb salesman A.Q. Khan had indeed sold Iran uranium enrichment centrifuges, almost certainly as part of what has become known as "the package." No one doubts Iran has a bomb program…

Iran has already violated the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty without being referred to the Security Council and has consistently refused to renounce its alleged "right" to uranium enrichment, a position it reiterated in response to last week's offer. We hope by some miracle this latest diplomacy works. But soon enough the more relevant question is likely to be: When will Western leaders take Iran's "no" for an answer?

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The US Alliance for Democratic Iran (USADI), is a US-based, non-profit, independent organization, which promotes informed policy debate, exchange of ideas, analysis, research and education to advance a US  policy on Iran which will benefit America’s interests, both at home and in the Middle East, through supporting Iranian people’s  aspirations for a democratic, secular, and peaceful government, free of tyranny, fundamentalism, weapons of mass destruction, and terrorism.

USADI supports the Iranian peoples' aspirations for democracy, peace,  human rights, women’s equality, freedom of expression, separation of  church and state, self-determination, control of land and resources,  cultural integrity, and the right to development and prosperity.

The USADI is not affiliated with any government agencies, political groups or parties. The USADI administration is solely responsible for its activities and decisions.